LNG supply gains do not halt market disruptions
Despite a 3% increase in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in July compared to June, supported by production in the United States and Australia, the market continues to face disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Global production rose by 1.5 million tons to approximately 33 million tons, but remains 9% lower year-on-year. The Strait of Hormuz continues to impose restrictions, with less than 19% of shipped volumes leaving the region, amid ongoing security threats and shipment transit restrictions. In Egypt, incidents and fires on gas ships at the Damietta port have strained the country's import capacity, with July imports falling below maximum capacity, threatening summer supply delays. In Asia, demand has increased due to heatwaves, with Japan, Taiwan, India, and Thailand boosting their imports, while European imports have dropped to their lowest levels in over two years due to poor economic viability. Europe's total reserves are about 12 billion cubic meters below those of last year. Prices are expected to remain low, with forecasts indicating a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by the last year of 2026, and a market shift from deficit to a gradual surplus by 2027–2028, amid varying demand and global production dynamics.
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