Oxford Economics predicts Gulf rebound in 2027

Economic reports anticipate a strong economic rebound in the Gulf countries in 2027, following a year filled with challenges stemming from regional conflicts and a decline in trade and energy activities. It is expected that the real GDP of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will grow by 6.8% by the end of that year, after experiencing a contraction of approximately 5.4% in 2026. The recovery primarily depends on an improvement in oil and gas exports, coupled with a gradual resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and regional efforts to restore trade flows. The studies forecast that Saudi Arabia will contribute the largest share to the Gulf-wide growth, followed by the UAE and Qatar, which are projected to see the highest growth rates of up to 11.5% due to the recovery in energy exports. Despite security challenges, Gulf economies have demonstrated resilience in non-oil sectors, with business indicators improving and consumer spending gradually recovering. However, the tourism sector remains the least recovered due to air travel closures and declining visitor numbers. The reports emphasize that the current crisis presents a strategic opportunity to strengthen Gulf economic diversification through investments in infrastructure and the independence of maritime routes. Meanwhile, regional governments are shifting their spending priorities to support vital sectors such as education and health, and to reinforce security and energy on a long-term basis.

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