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Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points, which supports a strengthening of the dollar against major currencies, especially the yen and the New Zealand dollar. However, if interest rates are not increased, the dollar is expected to decline sharply by more than 1%. The current dollar increase is attributed to rising yields on global bonds, with markets remaining resilient despite these increases, awaiting the upcoming Federal Reserve decision.
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