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Gulf crude rebounds amid refining crisis
The Gulf region has experienced a recovery in crude oil exports to approximately 98% of pre-war levels, leading to a temporary respite in the global markets. However, the refined products market, such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, continues to face a severe supply crisis with significant price hikes. These markets have only recovered half of their previous capacity, roughly three million barrels per day, due to refinery infrastructure damages and security risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz. This crisis coincides with the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, where attacks on Russian refineries have reduced global supplies. As a result, diesel prices in the U.S. market have reached historic highs, hitting $6.41 per gallon—an increase of over 70% in a year—placing consumers under substantial inflationary pressure. Currently, discussions are underway to impose export restrictions on fuel in the United States to curb local shortages, though such measures could deepen the global crisis and complicate the situation further ahead of the upcoming Congress elections.
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