IMF Examines Global Economic Resilience
The International Monetary Fund’s report on the global economy for 2026 highlights that inflation is expected to remain high at around 5%, heavily dependent on stable energy flows, particularly oil prices—which are projected to reach $96 per barrel in 2026, and could rise to $130 in a war scenario with Iran. Such a situation would threaten global growth, reducing it by as much as half a percentage point. The report also notes a decline in growth forecasts for 47% of countries due to the energy crisis, with decreases ranging from 1% to 5% depending on the region. It warns of financial stability risks resulting from geopolitical escalation and inflationary pressures. Amid policy balancing acts, central banks face difficulties in raising interest rates to curb inflation while maintaining economic growth. Meanwhile, economies in the Middle East and North Africa are experiencing pressures from rising import costs and declining real incomes.
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