IMF cites strong Middle East resilience
The International Monetary Fund’s estimates show that the Middle East region's economy has demonstrated a greater-than-expected resilience to the war’s repercussions, with its impacts being limited on oil-exporting countries thanks to pre-war surpluses and the flexibility of oil markets. Although a contraction of 1.3% is expected this year, growth is projected to rebound to 6.6% in 2027, supported by a gradual recovery in production and trade, although declining inventories could threaten this if disruptions persist. Conversely, oil-importing countries in the region have maintained a relatively resilient performance, buoyed by government support and workers’ remittances, with inflation expected to rise modestly. The Fund warns of the ongoing war’s danger, which could hinder growth and heighten inflationary pressures. It emphasizes the importance of fiscal and monetary policies to maintain stability and achieve sustainable growth, while also strengthening institutions and their capacity to face future shocks.
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