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A Democratic victory in one or both chambers of Congress could lead to more investigations into companies and greater pressure over spending and legislation, while President Donald Trump would retain his powers in areas such as tariffs and regulation. Historically, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 23% in the year after a midterm election when Congress was divided and the president was a Republican, compared with 16% when Democrats controlled both chambers. But analysts caution against assuming this pattern will repeat. The elections’ effects could vary across companies and sectors most closely tied to Washington, including defense, health care, banking, and artificial intelligence.
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