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China is mobilizing state-owned companies and coordinating through specialized agencies to increase its stakes in overseas mines, securing the minerals it needs and strengthening its influence over supply. Its acquisitions of overseas mineral assets reached $8.8 billion in the first three quarters of the year—the highest total since at least 2018. Beijing treats a 70% reliance on imports as an implicit red line, while overseas investment in the upstream stages of critical-mineral supply chains is expected to nearly double compared with the 2021–2025 period. China produces about 92% of the world’s refined rare earths and has imposed export restrictions on seven types. A decline in its exports of yttrium oxide to Japan drove the price outside China to about $1,150 per kilogram, compared with $9 domestically. The strategy is facing growing demands from host countries for minerals to be processed locally, prompting Chinese companies to build refining capacity near mines—as they did in Indonesia after it banned nickel ore exports.
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