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Bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December surged after the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October and core inflation climbed 0.3% for the third consecutive month, keeping inflationary pressures elevated. The odds of a larger increase reached about 15% before falling back to 10%, while two-year Treasury yields posted their biggest gain since early April 2025. Officials including Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan expressed support for accelerating monetary tightening or raising rates, while Michelle Bowman warned of the risks of tighter financial conditions and urged caution.
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