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IEA Sees Oil Glut Return
The International Energy Agency expects the oil market to return to surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with supply likely to reach 105 million barrels per day—about 1.7 million barrels per day above demand—as Middle Eastern exports recover despite shipping risks and attacks on tankers. Global supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October, to 105.4 million. Gulf exports reached 18.4 million barrels per day, but remained 26% below pre-war levels. The agency forecasts that global demand will fall by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026, to 102.3 million, and warns that diesel supplies will remain tight and navigation risks persist, despite observed inventories rising by 52 million barrels in October.
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