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Gold's 8-month trend: causes of rise and fall

Gold's 8-month trend: causes of rise and fall

The gold market in Egypt experienced sharp fluctuations throughout 2026, with the price of a 21-karat gram moving between record highs and lows due to various factors. These included global gold ounce prices, geopolitical tensions, expectations regarding US interest rates, the US dollar against the Egyptian pound, and local supply and demand dynamics. The year began with a price of 5,840 Egyptian pounds per gram, peaked at 7,475 pounds in February, then declined to 6,100 pounds in June. It later recovered part of its losses, closing at 6,325 pounds in August, with significant price gaps of up to 1,375 pounds between the lowest and highest points — marking an overall increase of 8.3% since the start of the year. Market movements are divided into three phases: a sharp rise in the first quarter driven by geopolitical tensions, a steep correction in the second quarter due to changing monetary expectations, and a gradual recovery in the third quarter. The fluctuations in local gold prices are primarily driven by global ounce prices, the US dollar rate, and the balance of supply and demand within the Egyptian market. The movement of the dollar mainly influences prices directly, while variations between global and domestic gold prices reflect the market's complexity. The outlook for the coming period will depend on interest rate trends, geopolitical tensions, and central bank behaviors. The timing of purchases and achieving a balance between spot prices will be crucial in this context.

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