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Abi Ahmed's rule under threat
The armed opposition in Ethiopia, led by seven groups, has shifted its focus toward forming a joint coalition with the aim of overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establishing a transitional administration. The alliance includes the Amhara Fano movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the Ogaaden Liberation Front, along with other groups representing different regions of the country. The coalition faces significant challenges, including internal disagreements over the country's future, issues of military and political coordination, and the difficulty of translating coordination into effective pressure on the government—especially given the military superiority of government forces and regional and ethnic disputes within the groups. The report indicates that the coalition's success in ousting the government is uncertain, particularly amid substantial military and political hurdles and internal disagreements that could hinder the formation of unified leadership and a stable transitional process.
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