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The World Bank expects the Gulf Cooperation Council economies to contract by 4.3% in 2026 due to the repercussions of regional conflicts, energy disruptions, and trade disturbances, with imported oil economies experiencing a similar growth decline. Qatar will be the most severely affected, anticipated to shrink its gross domestic product (GDP) by 20.9%, marking its worst performance in over five decades. Iraq follows with a 12.4% contraction, and Iran with 7.7%. Meanwhile, the region's overall GDP is forecast to shrink by 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025, with varying impacts depending on each country's reliance on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait are the most affected, whereas Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are impacted to a lesser extent. Additionally, Qatar experienced an increase in food inflation of over 12%, driven by rising transportation costs and supply chain disruptions, which are adding further pressure on investment and public finances.
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