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IMF predicts Hormuz Strait reopening in 2027
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Strait of Hormuz to be fully open to shipping traffic by March 2027, with shipping levels returning to pre-war levels by October of the same year. These projections are influenced by navigational stability following escalations in regional conflict, along with a gradual improvement in oil prices, which are anticipated to reach $87 per barrel in 2027—down from an earlier forecast of $96 in 2026. However, the IMF warns that an escalation of the war could drive oil prices up to $130 per barrel, increasing inflationary pressures and negatively impacting global economic growth, which could decline by 0.2% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027. Inflation is also expected to rise to 5.2% in 2027. The outlook for the global economy is heavily dependent on developments in the Middle East and the potential stabilization of energy supplies.
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