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The World Trade Organization expects that wars and geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and Ukraine, will have long-lasting impacts on global trade flows. It has pointed out that trade in the Middle East has experienced a sharp contraction, with exports declining by up to 17% and imports by 15% this year, due to conflicts such as the war with Iran. The organization also emphasized that these crises have led to the restructuring of supply chains and prompted companies to diversify transportation routes, despite increased costs, in order to ensure global economic stability and reduce risks associated with vital passages like the Strait of Hormuz. It forecasted that the shift toward regional trade will continue, particularly among African countries, amid ongoing uncertainty and challenges linked to trade tensions and technological developments such as artificial intelligence.
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