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ECB Alerts on Tech Stocks Downturn

ECB Alerts on Tech Stocks Downturn

The European Central Bank warned of the potential for a correction in the global stock market, supported by research indicating that boom periods associated with artificial intelligence are often followed by crashes. Experts explained that valuations in the U.S. stock market, particularly the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), are nearing their historic highs, while valuations in the Eurozone are less elevated. They attributed the possibility of a correction to the fact that high valuations are usually justified by uncertainty regarding new productivity gains; however, as the adoption of modern technologies expands, risks increase, and overconfidence among investors spreads, which could lead to sharp declines in prices. Investment tools such as index funds and direct exposures held by households and insurance companies show that any correction could happen rapidly, triggering a wave of sell-offs that amplify declines. The forecast also indicates that the growth of earnings for major technology companies might slow from 45% to 25% within a year, further raising the likelihood of a correction and the risk of market disruptions worldwide. Nonetheless, the stock market in the Eurozone is considered less vulnerable to AI-related risks.

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