US sanctions and Iran's regime
Iran is facing a severe economic crisis as a result of escalating U.S. sanctions. It is expected that its economy will shrink by 5.4% in 2026, with inflation rising to around 69% and food prices increasing by 128%. Despite this, the regime has not yet fallen, thanks to Iran's development of a parallel economy and networks for circumventing sanctions—particularly in oil trade with China and trade relations with countries like Turkey and Iraq. The real danger lies in worsening living conditions, which could lead to widespread protests. However, the regime is strengthening security measures and using a "economic war" rhetoric to contain public anger. Sanctions alone are not enough to topple the regime; other factors such as internal divisions and ongoing popular protests are also required, amid continued currency devaluation and worsening inflation.
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