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Tunisia is currently facing the deepest and most comprehensive crisis in its history, related to the state's failure to manage economic, social, and political crises. These issues have intensified due to weakened institutions and a lack of strategic decision-making, leading to frequent interruptions in water and electricity supplies, deterioration of production services and infrastructure, and a decline in investments in vital sectors by up to 87% between 2016 and 2025. Despite the social repercussions and widespread protests, institutions continue to struggle to absorb shocks. This situation threatens to cause more severe economic and social setbacks during the upcoming summer if current policies persist. Meanwhile, opposition groups and civil organizations are calling for a comprehensive national dialogue and the formation of a united front to confront the crisis. There are three main possible scenarios: continued deterioration, a social explosion, or a governance crisis that could open the door to external intervention. Tunisia must achieve national reconciliation and rebuild its capacities before the crisis imposes its own coercive options.
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