Baghdad Faces New Security Challenge Post-U.S. Withdrawal
After the withdrawal of American forces from Erbil Base in Iraq on September 30, the "Enduring Sentinel" mission against ISIS concluded after nearly 12 years, with security responsibilities officially transferred to Iraqi forces. Although the direct US presence has ended, operations against ISIS continue in Syria, with command transferred to Jordan, allowing Washington to maintain its regional role from outside Iraq. Iraqi forces face significant challenges in bridging gaps in air power and modern technology, while the ISIS threat remains active, especially in desert and border areas, amid fears of reorganization of cells and the potential exploitation of security vacuums. Additionally, the withdrawal of American forces has opened the door for Iran-aligned armed factions to strengthen their influence within Iraq, even as the Iraqi government seeks to balance its relations with Washington and Tehran to maintain stability. The United States still possesses the capability to conduct military operations from other regional bases, particularly Jordan, but launching strikes inside Iraq would be more politically complex, altering the nature of American influence in the region. Major challenges remain: maintaining Iraq’s security, managing the balance among regional powers, and the possibility of ISIS resurgence or escalated fighting between armed factions and the United States.
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