Iran overlooks volcanoes; Arabs face the aftermath

The article addressed the ongoing conflict between Iran and the Arab and Gulf countries, examining its political, security, and economic dimensions. It clarified that these disputes are not solely sectarian but also involve alliances, military movements, and financial privileges—such as the establishment of the General Engineer Company in Iraq, which has ties to Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shabi). This arrangement enables armed factions to control resources and budgets, making it difficult for the state to regain its influence. The article also pointed out that diplomatic understandings, like the Beijing Agreement, will not lead to stability unless accompanied by binding and transparent mechanisms to prevent attacks and uphold sovereign authority, especially given ongoing threats from missile attacks and the monopoly of power. Furthermore, it noted that an increase in oil exports amidst attacks on tankers reflects fragility in trust and stability, as well as the risks associated with continued reliance on illicit weapons and financing. The article emphasized that resolving conflicts successfully requires mechanisms linking resource control with oversight, as well as effective accountability for those making decisions related to the disputes. It also highlighted that current conflicts extend beyond government levels to include armed factions and informal networks, which influence the prospects for sustainable peace.

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