IMF forecasts growth for oil exporters in 2024
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the economies of oil-exporting countries to experience a significant contraction in 2026 due to energy and trade disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East, before returning to strong growth in 2027 as production and trade resume. Here are the key points: - Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan economies are projected to shrink by 1.3% in 2026, following a 3.3% growth in 2025, with a rebound to 6.6% growth in 2027. - Rising oil prices, with the Kuwaiti barrel reaching $106.23, helped stabilize financial conditions, although output remained below pre-war estimates. - Oil-importing economies showed resilience thanks to worker remittances, tourism, and government measures, with a moderate rise in inflation expected in 2026 followed by a gradual decline. - The region has relatively coped with the shock, but ongoing war poses the greatest risk to economic activity, with growth expected to slow to 5.2% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. - The IMF called for enhancing domestic revenue, diversifying trade, and strengthening regional integration to better face economic shocks and promote financial stability.
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