Oil markets shift as risk premium narrows
Although navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has resumed and the United States has temporarily exempted Iran from oil export restrictions, the oil markets continue to be influenced by geopolitical factors. Crude prices have dropped to around $71.6 for Brent and $68.7 for WTI, as the chances of supply disruptions diminish. The market expects oil prices to fluctuate between $70 and $80 per barrel if current conditions remain stable, with the potential to exceed $90 if tensions escalate or navigation is disrupted. Such developments pose risks to inflation and global growth. The Strait of Hormuz remains sensitive due to its strategic importance, as well as OPEC+ decisions and US-Iran relations, which are key factors in determining the trajectory of oil prices this year.
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