Gulf States and Iran: Tensions or Balance
The article discusses the changes at the regional level following the escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States. It highlights how the confrontation impacts the balance of power and the nature of alliances in the Gulf. The piece emphasizes that Gulf security will not rely solely on military strength but will depend on a combination of deterrence and diplomacy, with some countries continuing dialogue with Iran to ensure regional stability and reduce the costs of escalation. It also notes that the relationship with Iran will shift from efforts to build trust to managing its absence, with a likelihood that the region will remain in a cautious equilibrium that enhances defensive capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran faces a choice between escalating its influence through current policies or redefining its regional role to foster more neighborly relations.
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