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Electoral and regional influence on Lebanon-Israel relations
The course of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, which has now reached its seventh round, is heavily influenced by regional developments and international pressure. Israel is avoiding making any concessions before its upcoming internal elections, focusing instead on achieving limited operational gains. It aims to maintain its current stance, relying on the lack of real pressure from Washington, which unofficially understands Tel Aviv’s concerns regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah. Meanwhile, the United States is seeking to impose sanctions on entities supporting Hezbollah and to constrain its backing of Lebanon, with the goal of shifting the weapons issue to a domestic matter and de-escalating ongoing regional tensions. The U.S. continues to rely on American-Iranian channels in hopes of making progress, despite the complexities involved. This situation indicates that the final resolution remains contingent on the electoral outcomes in the United States and Israel, with a cloud of uncertainty surrounding the future of the negotiation process. Lebanon lacks significant leverage, and the region remains watchful of major developments ahead.
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