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The article discusses Iran's escalation through the strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in its confrontation with the United States. It points out that Tehran is seeking to increase the costs of war by threatening energy routes and international trade. Since Iran manages the majority of its oil exports via these two passages, this poses significant economic pressure—especially with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, which could be affected by rising fuel prices. Reports indicate that the Houthis have taken control of Perim Island at the entrance of Bab el-Mandeb, increasing the likelihood of its closure. Such a move risks undermining global oil supplies, which rely on 20% of the world’s consumption passing through the Strait of Hormuz and 4.2 million barrels per day through Bab el-Mandeb. There is concern that continued escalation could lead to a sharp rise in oil prices, threatening the global economy and increasing political pressure on the United States. Ultimately, Iran is betting that by raising the economic costs of war, Washington may be compelled to retreat. Meanwhile, oil remains a dangerous indicator of worsening conditions if prices reach record highs.
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