Russia-NATO avoided direct conflict
Do not expect direct military escalation between Russia and NATO at the present time, despite the increasing tensions. Both sides are relying on indirect measures of escalation such as cyberattacks, sabotage, and targeting infrastructure, within the framework of a hybrid warfare scenario. Recent incidents, like a Russian drone targeting a train near the Polish border, indicate that Moscow is using limited operations to send political messages and test European reactions without engaging in a full-scale confrontation. They aim to maintain sensitivity in border regions, especially the Baltic states, Poland, and the Suwalki corridor. The threat of indirect escalation remains valid, requiring NATO to balance deterrence with the risk of triggering outright military conflict, all amid a highly tense nuclear environment.
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