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Shift from Deterrence to Interests in Regional System
The article focuses on the features of the new regional system in the Gulf and the broader Middle East following the recent war that altered concepts of security and power. The conflict demonstrated that the notion of security is no longer limited to American military strength or reliance on a single protective umbrella. Instead, it has become more complex and diverse, with strategies such as the importance of straits, ports, pipelines, and natural gas resources emerging as key strategic axes in reconfiguring power dynamics. Furthermore, the experience revealed that American military superiority did not prevent Iran and its allies from threatening Gulf security and increasing the costs of energy and maritime navigation. This underscores the need for a multilateral security system. Gulf countries are moving toward diversifying their guarantees and partnerships to reduce dependence on the United States and to balance their interests with Iran, through mechanisms like regional dialogues and non-aggression pacts. On the international level, Europe has become more involved in securing energy flows, exemplified by France sending defenses to Yanbu, reflecting a shift in the distribution of roles, while the United States continues to provide strategic deterrence. The new system will not be based on a single alliance but rather a network of security arrangements and shared interests. Moreover, Israel's comprehensive participation remains challenging until the Palestinian issue is resolved, and there are ongoing challenges related to non-state militias and armed resistance groups. In conclusion, the article suggests that the post-war regional system will not be built on conflict and decisive victories alone. Instead, it will be based on understandings of "non-aggression" and adjustments in relations, acknowledging that it is impossible to eliminate the influence of major powers or achieve complete escalation. This paves the way for a more sustainable and pluralistic security framework.
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