Congress Race Nears End

The article outlines four scenarios for the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, amid doubts about the accuracy of Senate polls. As of October 16, only 66 polls had been published, compared with an average of 123 in the previous four election cycles, and 13 of the 27 races were close. If the polls are right, Democrats could regain the majority. A modest polling error in Republicans’ favor could instead flip control, while an underestimation of Democratic support could produce a blue wave, giving the party as many as 55 seats. In the fourth scenario, Democrats make gains but fall short of a majority, leaving control to be decided by the vice president’s tie-breaking vote. The article concludes that the election’s outcome will remain uncertain until the votes are counted.

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