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لبنان ٢٤
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2026-11-05T13:00:00.000Z

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Rare Signal Warns Markets

Rare Signal Warns Markets

The S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings multiple fell by 4.4 points over the past year, from 23.2 to around 18.8—a rare signal of this magnitude, seen only six times since 1983. Five of those instances coincided with a recession or a stock-market decline. Even so, the index rose over the following year in five of the six cases, despite pullbacks averaging about 18%, making the signal inconclusive as to whether a new downturn is coming. Concerns are mounting over the sustainability of the AI boom and corporate earnings, while the market’s direction will depend on company performance and investment, and on whether the U.S. economy can avoid a slowdown.

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