Hormuz Strait disruptions impact trade
The High Commission for Planning presents in its report the impact of the geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz during the first half of 2026 on the global economy and Morocco in particular. The findings indicate that these tensions caused disruptions in maritime transportation, leading to rising prices for raw materials. It is expected that oil prices will increase by 31.8% in 2026, while European natural gas prices will rise by 22%. Additionally, phosphate fertilizer prices will go up, with a 5.8% increase for diammonium phosphate and an 8.2% rise for superphosphate. Despite these increases, oil prices are projected to decrease by 11.8% in 2027, contributing to a gradual stabilization of the market. On another note, economic growth is linked to key service sectors, with continued improvements in tourism and transportation revenues. The report also forecasts that imports of goods and services will grow by 10.5% in 2026 before slowing to 6.1% in 2027. Exports are expected to increase by 8.3% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2027. Regarding the trade balance, it is anticipated that the deficit will widen to approximately 21.9% of GDP in 2026 before narrowing to 21.1% in 2027. Meanwhile, the surplus in the services balance will help reduce resource deficits to 12.3% of GDP in 2026 and is forecast to decrease further to 10.9% in 2027. The reports also expect remittances from Moroccans abroad to continue rising despite their declining purchasing power in Europe.
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