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New Model Assesses Earthquake Risk
The scientific study presents a new model that measures the risk of aftershocks following major earthquakes in Morocco, based on field data analysis from the Al Hoceima earthquakes (1994, 2004, 2016) and the 2023 Hoz earthquake. The model aims to estimate the probability of aftershocks exceeding 5 magnitude on the Richter scale within the first three hours after the main quake, supporting rapid response management rather than pre-earthquake prediction. The results show that the likelihood of aftershocks varies between cases, ranging from less than 10% to 30%. It is recommended not to generalize these percentages to other areas, given differences in tectonic and geographic characteristics. This model serves as a useful risk management tool, and researchers emphasize the importance of conducting precise engineering assessments before making any decisions regarding building evacuation or reopening, while also calling for expanded studies to include other regions of the Maghreb and the Iberian Peninsula.
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