Future urban growth depends on three population scenarios
The article addresses the importance of using population projections in future urban planning in the Sultanate of Oman, aiming to meet the future population's needs for services and facilities such as schools, hospitals, and housing units. The paper examines three population growth scenarios up to the year 2040, based on different fertility rates, with projections indicating an increase in population from approximately 2.98 million in 2024 to between 3.9 and 4.3 million according to the scenarios. It also anticipates a shift in the age structure, with a decrease in the proportion of children and an increase in the elderly, which will impact future development plans. Models for estimating housing needs are presented, with an expected annual growth rate of about 3% in housing units from 2025 to 2040, while occupancy rates are projected to remain steady at 72%. The study emphasizes that population projections are crucial in supporting sustainable urban development by identifying growth locations and efficiently allocating resources.
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