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The confrontation between Iran and the United States over the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying, with Washington claiming to have established full control over the maritime passage and to have halted Iranian oil exports since the resumption of sanctions in July 2026, by safeguarding approximately 1,500 ships and dismantling Iranian mines. Conversely, Tehran insists that the strait has not yet been fully reopened and affirms that its reopening requires lifting the blockade and sanctions, as well as fulfilling American obligations. Meanwhile, the risks to navigation are increasing due to threats from mines, missiles, and military tensions. Additionally, Washington is carrying out a financial campaign focused on isolating Iran's economy, targeting financial channels linked to Tehran, especially disrupting the branches of Bank Misr in the UAE, in order to reduce Iran’s ability to use its oil resources as leverage. The crisis reflects a shift, transforming the strait into a battleground of political, military, and economic conflicts, with diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Oman underway. However, thus far, negotiations on the conditions for opening the strait remain stalled, amid ongoing internal Iranian challenges such as rising inflation and declining trade. At the same time, the option of resorting to full-scale war remains unlikely at this stage, as negotiations and pressures from both sides continue.
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