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Potential scenarios to push gold over 5K
Jeffries, the American company, predicts that the price of gold could see significant rises, potentially surpassing $5,000 per ounce. This is due to a structural shift in the precious metals market driven by increased central bank purchases and diversification of reserves away from the traditional reliance on interest rates and the US dollar. The firm relies on a new model based on long-term data (from 1995 to 2025) that focuses on the diversification of central bank reserves, gold's position relative to US bonds, and the US fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP. They believe that the reliance of economies on gold within their reserves has become a crucial factor in determining prices. Jeffries forecasts that gold prices will reach $4,500 in the second half of 2026 and will rise to $5,000 in the first half of 2027. There are three main scenarios that could push the price above $5,000, including a US fiscal deficit approaching 14%, a decline in the dollar's share within global reserves to below 40%, and central banks doubling their gold purchases. The company warns that a decline or shift by central banks toward gold sales could pose a risk to the upward trend in prices. They view increased gold holdings by central banks as a fundamental pillar in driving precious metal prices higher in the future.
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