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The situation in Iraq is witnessing an Israeli escalation supported by the United States, as the U.S. has given Israel a "green light" to expand its air operations near Iraq, targeting armed factions loyal to Iran—especially those receiving support from Tehran through land routes extending from Iran across Iraq to Syria and Lebanon. These steps come amid Israeli concerns that a reduction in U.S. presence in Iraq will strengthen Iran’s supply lines and help rebuild the capabilities of armed factions, posing a threat to regional security. Iraq is working on a plan to disarm armed factions and integrate them into government institutions by mid-2027, but some factions refuse to relinquish their heavy and strategic weapons, forcing the Iraqi government to face significant security and political challenges. The region is dealing with a complex overlap of military and diplomatic tracks involving Baghdad, Washington, and Tel Aviv, with the possibility that Israeli strikes could lead to broad security escalation that threatens the balance of power in Iraq and Iran’s influence within it.
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