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US-Israel Iran Scenarios
The United States and Israel are weighing two military scenarios for dealing with Iran as diplomatic efforts falter: a broad campaign lasting several days and targeting military sites and nuclear facilities, including the “Pickaxe Mountain” facility; or a limited, selective strike that avoids oil and energy facilities. The broader campaign could involve fighter jets from two aircraft carriers, with a third potentially arriving, as well as B-1 and B-2 bombers. But it carries the risk of Iranian retaliation that could threaten energy facilities, shipping and communications, and drive up oil prices. Washington also faces constraints on its stockpile of interceptor missiles. A limited strike could allow Trump to declare a quick success while reducing the risk of escalation. But it would not end Iran’s ability to affect maritime security or rebuild its capabilities, leaving the crisis unresolved.
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