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Fossil dip, global rise
The Global Carbon Project forecast a 0.4% decline in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement production in 2026, to about 38.2 billion metric tons, with oil emissions falling 1.9%, partly due to disruptions in energy supplies and the expansion of solar and wind power. But total emissions, including land-use change, are expected to rise from 42.8 billion tons in 2025 to 43.3 billion tons this year. Researchers estimated that the remaining carbon budget for retaining a chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C is about 150 billion tons—less than four years’ worth at the current rate of emissions.
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