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الاقتصادية
Bank of America: Global Recovery with Damage
Bank of America reports that the fragile peace agreement related to the war on Iran has provided some relief to the global economy by reducing energy price and inflation expectations. However, it has not erased the shock-induced inflationary effects that followed the start of the conflict. The bank has upgraded its global economic growth forecast to 3.2% this year and 3.5% in 2027, supported by a booming Asian AI-related exports and improved conditions in advanced economies as energy prices decline. Nonetheless, the improvement in numbers does not reflect a return to pre-war conditions, as the report confirms that financial damage has already occurred, and a drop in energy prices to previous levels will not fully offset the impact of the shock. The bank anticipates Brent crude to reach $72 per barrel in the second half of 2026 and $65 in 2027, with global inflation expected to fall to 3% this year and to 2.4% in 2027, while the possibility of a 75 basis point increase in U.S. interest rates remains on the table. Security and political challenges—such as energy market stability in the Middle East—are viewed as a major test for the global economy, which currently faces "two and a half tests" related to energy market effects, monetary policy, and a technological boom in Asia.
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