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Wheat gains on Black Sea risks
Wheat prices have risen significantly due to escalating tensions in the Black Sea and the worsening outlook for crops, amid concerns over the ongoing impacts of Russian and Ukrainian attacks on exports through the Black Sea region, which serves as a major shipping route for three of the world's largest wheat exporters. Futures contracts for wheat in Chicago increased by up to 0.9%, with a total rise of 16% in July, as Ukraine and Russia—together responsible for between 25% and 30% of global wheat exports—are expected to have their harvest disruptions impact world prices. Additionally, Russia has taken measures to halt ships docking at the Sea of Azov and Caucasus ports and has continued strikes on Ukrainian ports, heightening fears about supply disruptions. Russia's wheat production forecasts for 2026-2027 have also decreased by 0.7%, with July exports falling to approximately 1.5 million tons— the lowest level since 2017—due to logistical restrictions, a decline in France's wheat output caused by a heatwave, and a drop in the quality of the US spring wheat crop. Meanwhile, corn prices have surged for over two months, reaching $4.775 per bushel, supported by ongoing conflicts and expectations of reduced European production due to extreme heat.
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