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The global diesel market is experiencing a severe crisis due to a supply shortage that has worsened because of wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, leading to a significant decline in inventories and rising prices ahead of the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere. Europe and regions heavily dependent on imports are under the greatest pressure, with stocks down by around 30% since the end of March. Prices for diesel are expected to increase by up to 40% compared to their recent lows, threatening higher costs and increased inflation. As refining capacity declines and demand for fuel rises in Asia and Europe, the availability of diesel is likely to decrease further as winter approaches—especially amid sanctions restrictions on Russian imports—intensifying the energy supply crisis and raising the possibility of a long, cold winter for Europe.
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