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OPEC ups oil demand forecast for 2024

OPEC ups oil demand forecast for 2024

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has raised its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.2 million barrels per day, expressing the belief that demand will experience a strong recovery after 2026, which has been characterized by weak growth and market disruptions. The report predicts that growth in 2027 will be more than triple the expected increase in demand for 2026, indicating that the temporary decline in oil consumption this year will be followed by a robust rebound as economic conditions improve and markets stabilize. Expectations are particularly optimistic concerning non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, which OPEC expects to contribute more than four-fifths of the global demand increase. Meanwhile, OECD countries are projected to add 300,000 barrels per day in 2027, after experiencing a decline in 2026. The report anticipates that ongoing disruptions—such as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and rising geopolitical risks—will push oil prices higher, especially given that prices are already at elevated levels. This could limit the recovery and lead to economic impacts like inflation and slower growth. Nonetheless, OPEC+ is expected to increase its oil demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2027, as producers prepare to restore output following Middle East disruptions, despite inventories remaining below historical levels. This recovery aims to meet the projected demand, with persistently high prices serving as a motivating factor for market recovery and overcoming the challenges of 2026.

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