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The article discusses the decline of global oil inventories by approximately 410 million barrels since the beginning of the war, while oil prices continue to rise near $90 per barrel amid anticipation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of negotiations between the United States and Iran on shipping activity. Data shows that inventory drawdowns averaged 2.7 million barrels per day, with the oil market expected to face a deficit of about 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter due to ongoing supply pressures. Meanwhile, global demand is projected to decrease by around 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, limiting price increases. China’s crude oil imports also fell by 32% during the second quarter, and supply shortages have led to a reduction of about 5 million barrels per day in refinery operations worldwide, with diesel and jet fuel exports dropping by 20% and 34%, respectively. The future of oil prices remains dependent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and restoring supplies, with Brent expected to range between $85 in the third quarter and $69 in 2027.
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