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Russia will reduce oil production slightly this year due to unscheduled refinery maintenance, but this decline is temporary, and production is expected to rebound as refineries resume operations. Government forecasts show that Russia has lowered its oil production estimates for this year to the lowest level in 17 years, and similar adjustments will be made for 2026 and 2027 due to the war with Ukraine, with an expected decrease of between 16 and 20 million tons in production and exports. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister confirmed that the production decline resulting from maintenance is temporary, and the role of OPEC+ in the market will remain important despite limited challenges caused by reduced supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
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