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The war in Iran has caused significant quantities of diesel supplies to be withdrawn from global markets, surpassing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This has led to record-high diesel prices and increased pressure on fuel supplies. The Middle East lost approximately 770,000 barrels per day of diesel between March and August compared to the same period last year, which is twice the decline experienced in Russian supplies, around 350,000 barrels per day. Additionally, attacks on Russian oil refineries and Moscow's ban on diesel exports have contributed to a reduction in Russian shipments. As a result, diesel futures prices have surged sharply in European and American markets, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and delays in the global recovery from recent shocks. The market is expected to remain under pressure due to continued conflicts and supply restrictions, although there is some hope that tensions may ease if Russia and Iran reach agreements to halt escalation.
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