2027 Revenue Scenarios Support Saudi Budget
The Saudi Ministry of Finance anticipates three revenue scenarios for the 2027 budget, ranging from 1.134 trillion riyals in the lowest scenario to 1.261 trillion riyals in the highest, while expenses are expected to remain stable at 1.392 trillion riyals. The difference between the highest and lowest scenarios amounts to approximately 127 billion riyals, or about 10.6% of the baseline estimates, reflecting an effort to limit the range of forecasts and reduce the impact of market fluctuations on revenues. These scenarios rely on diversifying sources of income, especially as non-oil revenues increased to 505 billion riyals in 2025, enhancing the resilience of public finances despite ongoing external risks. It is also projected that the gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed 5 trillion riyals in 2027 and approach 6 trillion riyals by 2029, supported by real economic growth and nominal growth, which is expected to rise by 7.6% in 2027.
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