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China is strengthening government coordination of its overseas mining investments to expand its stakes in critical minerals and secure resources it lacks at home, treating 70% import dependence as an implicit red line. Acquisitions of overseas mineral assets reached $8.8 billion in the first three quarters of the year, while investment abroad in upstream supply-chain stages is expected to nearly double between 2021 and 2025. China’s dominance in mineral refining—producing about 92% of the world’s refined rare earths—gives it leverage over supply and prices. But its expansion faces constraints from countries that require minerals to be processed locally, while more centralized decision-making could increase corruption risks and weaken returns.
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