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Rally May Mask a Downturn
Although U.S. stocks added more than $1.6 trillion in value, with the S&P 500 rising 2.3% and the Nasdaq 100 gaining more than 3.4%, the rebound does not necessarily mean the decline is over. Historical data going back to 1950 show that, in 11 of 17 similar cases, the index fell below the sell-off low within the following three months. Institutional net positioning has fallen to its lowest level in nearly five years, while retail investors have poured money into leveraged funds. These include SOXL, which recorded $9 billion in inflows in October and $2.2 billion on the day of the heavy sell-off. The S&P 500 is testing its ability to hold above its 200-day moving average at 7,353.73 points. While Mike Wilson believes the correction is nearing its end, Dan Niles warns that temporary rallies of as much as 14% can occur even in a downtrend.
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