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Half-point hike odds jump
Bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December surged after the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October and the core index increased 0.3% for the third consecutive month, exceeding economists’ forecast of 0.2%. The probability of a half-point increase reached about 15% in mid-session before slipping to 10%, while traders strengthened their expectations of three 25-basis-point hikes by mid-2027, up from two. Officials including Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan supported accelerating monetary tightening to combat inflation, while Michelle Bowman warned that tighter financial conditions could pose risks to the economy.
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