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A study by the S. Rajaratnam Institute of International Studies warns that military AI alerts may detect movements accurately, but cannot establish an adversary’s intent. Responding to them could prompt actions the other side interprets as a threat, creating a cycle of mutual escalation. Previous studies and incidents—including the alerts of 1983 and 1995—underscore the dangers of making consequential decisions on the basis of ambiguous information, particularly during nuclear crises. Experts recommend meaningful human oversight, including verification through independent sources, testing alternative interpretations, and allowing recommendations to be challenged, along with establishing response procedures and accountability in advance. The danger lies not only in the speed of machines, but in treating their uncertain assessments as facts.
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