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The Hormuz Agreement Is Collapsing: Why Doesn't Trump Have Good Options?
The Hormuz Strait agreement is collapsing amid the deteriorating situation in the strait, where military confrontations have resumed and shipping activity has dropped to its lowest levels in weeks. The crisis centers around differing interpretations of the terms of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, especially concerning the guarantee of "safe passage" for ships. As a result, the number of passing vessels has fallen from 36 to 11 ships per day, and oil prices have increased by approximately 20% to around $87 per barrel. The options available to the Trump administration—such as military strikes or imposing an economic blockade—remain limited or ineffective, as the United States cannot forcibly reopen the strait, and Iran has the means to disable it using missiles and drones. Ultimately, neither side has a successful military solution, and the current agreement is on the brink of collapse amid ongoing tensions and Iran experiencing economic losses exceeding $270 billion.
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